* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/26/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 31 36 41 47 51 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 31 36 41 47 51 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 24 25 28 31 35 39 SHEAR (KT) 35 33 34 31 26 14 6 11 9 14 12 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -6 -7 -5 -6 -5 -6 -3 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 89 84 88 101 106 110 108 101 96 88 84 94 94 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 149 149 148 145 142 144 147 149 148 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 6 7 6 9 7 8 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 65 64 65 66 65 67 65 66 63 62 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 73 78 71 70 65 48 43 49 64 76 79 64 60 200 MB DIV 32 6 9 6 4 39 12 10 -1 49 39 28 13 LAND (KM) 581 575 572 553 536 465 418 407 452 545 625 687 754 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.0 17.0 17.6 17.5 16.7 15.7 15.0 14.6 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.6 108.6 108.5 108.3 108.2 108.4 108.7 109.1 109.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 4 4 4 4 2 3 4 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 7 8 7 6 7 8 7 4 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 11. 16. 22. 26. 31. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/26/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/26/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING