* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/26/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 25 27 33 37 43 48 54 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 25 27 33 37 43 48 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 22 23 25 28 31 34 SHEAR (KT) 31 34 32 24 15 15 7 11 10 9 12 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -4 -2 -5 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 82 84 93 95 102 114 127 98 82 87 66 80 72 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 149 148 146 144 146 146 146 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 65 64 65 66 65 64 61 60 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 72 66 67 66 57 44 42 58 68 89 73 71 69 200 MB DIV 13 29 25 31 35 32 28 32 17 34 30 19 32 LAND (KM) 581 554 528 481 436 347 321 349 422 490 561 626 715 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.5 17.9 17.6 16.9 16.4 16.1 16.0 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 107.8 107.9 107.9 107.8 107.6 107.6 107.7 108.0 108.4 109.0 109.7 110.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 5 5 4 1 3 3 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 5 6 8 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 31. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 2. 8. 12. 18. 23. 29. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/26/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED