* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/27/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 24 26 32 35 39 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 24 26 32 35 39 40 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 22 21 21 21 22 23 23 23 22 SHEAR (KT) 35 31 22 19 17 9 5 3 7 3 3 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -2 -4 -7 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 82 96 101 101 102 146 112 86 91 36 187 259 265 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 148 145 142 138 134 131 127 123 117 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 9 7 9 6 8 6 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 66 67 66 67 61 55 51 49 44 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 8 8 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 72 74 67 56 49 41 53 61 77 75 67 45 29 200 MB DIV 44 34 19 27 32 31 29 8 23 4 -2 -11 -2 LAND (KM) 487 441 401 359 325 294 313 369 454 461 471 519 594 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.0 19.0 18.8 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.2 107.3 107.4 107.5 107.8 108.3 108.9 109.7 110.7 111.8 113.2 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 10 9 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 7. 10. 14. 15. 16. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/27/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY