* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/27/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 23 23 25 26 29 31 33 37 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 23 23 25 26 29 31 33 37 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 SHEAR (KT) 26 24 24 22 19 17 18 22 19 24 21 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -6 -9 -2 -5 0 1 0 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 83 96 100 109 125 108 102 112 111 108 102 95 98 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 150 149 149 148 145 142 138 136 134 134 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 10 8 7 9 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 66 66 64 62 61 63 64 66 65 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 33 20 11 14 47 52 61 63 55 49 46 39 200 MB DIV 21 15 25 19 9 17 -4 21 28 16 -5 5 9 LAND (KM) 363 317 270 268 268 336 454 607 763 870 944 994 1034 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.2 16.2 14.9 13.6 12.9 12.5 12.3 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.2 106.2 106.4 106.6 107.2 107.7 108.3 108.9 109.6 110.2 110.7 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 2 2 5 6 7 6 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 12 11 10 7 4 2 0 0 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/27/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/27/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING