* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * INVEST AL962010 09/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 48 61 69 72 74 72 71 67 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 40 50 62 71 65 67 65 64 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 37 46 59 71 69 73 71 64 57 SHEAR (KT) 14 7 4 3 12 15 12 14 20 18 27 35 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 0 2 6 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 13 47 76 61 75 85 91 35 39 34 348 313 288 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 164 168 170 168 169 170 158 155 149 143 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 151 157 162 162 166 166 147 138 130 125 119 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 10 8 9 10 9 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 75 73 74 72 65 54 52 50 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 125 135 140 138 138 126 101 80 38 21 6 -6 200 MB DIV 53 52 32 55 62 56 84 56 25 12 36 -3 4 LAND (KM) -23 16 74 146 195 196 329 53 150 372 528 655 775 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.0 17.6 17.5 18.6 20.7 23.0 24.5 25.6 26.7 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 87.5 86.9 86.3 85.7 83.7 81.4 78.9 76.9 75.4 74.3 73.5 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 10 14 15 12 9 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 76 104 137 157 142 106 139 125 34 74 40 45 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 32. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 36. 44. 47. 49. 47. 46. 42. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 09/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 123.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 09/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 09/27/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)