* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 21 23 24 26 32 37 43 47 55 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 21 23 24 26 32 37 43 47 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 22 22 22 22 23 24 25 27 SHEAR (KT) 21 23 20 18 14 12 14 12 11 10 6 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -7 -4 -1 1 2 0 0 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 79 88 111 127 122 94 96 79 69 91 88 84 93 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 149 148 147 146 144 141 140 139 138 139 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 66 67 68 65 61 58 56 55 51 50 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 8 10 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 28 20 15 18 32 54 71 87 85 87 77 56 39 200 MB DIV 22 23 30 9 12 14 17 15 8 4 -7 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 270 238 214 224 235 321 434 547 672 791 891 937 973 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.2 18.3 17.9 17.1 16.3 15.7 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.4 106.5 106.7 106.9 107.6 108.3 109.0 110.0 111.1 112.4 113.4 114.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 28 21 14 6 6 8 6 5 6 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 7. 12. 18. 22. 30. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY