* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 09/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 50 61 70 73 75 76 73 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 50 61 59 61 64 65 61 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 42 53 53 63 69 71 66 59 SHEAR (KT) 8 3 4 2 6 11 10 6 5 13 19 35 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -3 -4 -2 -4 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 41 245 283 170 155 151 145 43 93 326 289 279 267 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.4 29.1 28.6 27.8 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 166 170 168 166 169 160 154 146 135 128 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 152 157 157 158 162 151 141 129 119 115 113 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 10 10 8 10 8 8 5 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 76 76 72 67 56 47 45 41 43 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 132 140 139 143 121 139 110 75 55 30 19 -1 200 MB DIV 44 48 58 79 71 74 90 48 19 55 60 13 6 LAND (KM) 90 138 186 250 270 339 122 78 271 399 614 610 776 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.3 19.0 20.9 23.3 25.6 27.5 29.1 30.9 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 86.3 85.8 85.2 84.6 82.9 81.0 79.3 77.5 76.1 74.3 71.9 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 7 11 13 15 13 11 12 17 21 HEAT CONTENT 135 152 156 142 122 135 141 82 82 27 29 17 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 31. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 10. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 36. 45. 48. 50. 51. 48. 42. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 09/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 141.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 09/28/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 09/28/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)