* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 09/28/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 58 69 75 77 76 70 64 55 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 58 60 65 67 67 61 54 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 51 52 59 65 67 62 54 46 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 3 9 12 2 2 10 26 45 48 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -1 2 -2 1 2 5 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 335 322 294 279 243 244 223 74 306 287 268 261 250 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.4 28.9 28.0 27.4 27.1 27.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 165 165 167 161 152 138 130 127 131 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 151 152 152 154 159 153 141 123 114 112 119 106 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -51.2 -51.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 9 8 9 9 8 5 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 76 73 68 56 46 38 36 39 40 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 13 15 16 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 113 119 126 128 149 141 91 71 56 14 -14 -12 200 MB DIV 64 73 104 85 67 113 94 39 47 63 7 15 24 LAND (KM) 261 300 289 274 280 77 122 271 473 468 440 636 519 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.7 21.3 23.7 26.6 29.2 31.1 33.0 35.6 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 84.6 84.1 83.4 82.7 81.0 79.2 77.4 75.8 74.1 72.1 68.8 63.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 6 7 9 13 16 15 13 12 15 23 26 HEAT CONTENT 148 144 142 134 126 132 98 43 36 23 15 24 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 77/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 8. 4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 28. 39. 45. 47. 46. 40. 34. 25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 09/28/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 138.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 09/28/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 09/28/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)