* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/28/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 27 27 28 27 24 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 27 27 28 27 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 17 15 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 11 10 9 13 7 5 9 5 7 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -1 0 -3 1 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 106 116 126 114 129 142 172 170 199 243 217 239 261 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.3 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 141 139 136 132 128 125 119 114 104 97 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 62 59 49 49 46 41 36 34 30 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 30 44 49 61 69 62 56 42 21 10 6 200 MB DIV 29 -5 -10 -10 -5 -26 -7 0 -4 -12 -23 -7 -17 LAND (KM) 259 259 260 293 326 413 468 523 609 706 767 822 858 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.1 18.7 18.5 18.5 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.7 107.9 108.3 108.6 109.4 110.4 111.8 113.5 115.2 116.8 118.2 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 5 6 8 8 8 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 15 14 12 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/28/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/28/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY