* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162010 09/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 41 44 52 59 65 65 62 55 46 34 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 41 44 49 49 54 54 51 44 35 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 43 42 45 46 47 43 39 33 SHEAR (KT) 8 13 12 20 20 28 16 19 32 44 49 67 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 1 -2 1 -3 0 0 1 3 1 13 SHEAR DIR 292 265 223 219 204 185 198 202 224 233 235 233 236 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.3 28.1 27.0 26.3 22.8 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 162 161 160 151 143 139 126 121 97 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 147 145 147 147 139 128 120 109 108 90 76 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 2 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 79 75 73 68 67 58 47 40 34 34 40 37 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 117 142 157 168 188 167 106 81 65 67 64 68 200 MB DIV 73 103 96 98 86 104 43 52 96 75 32 52 34 LAND (KM) 229 170 112 73 29 93 30 290 224 155 313 369 209 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.4 24.3 26.9 29.8 32.3 34.1 36.3 39.6 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 82.8 82.9 82.9 82.8 82.6 81.4 79.8 78.0 76.7 75.0 72.3 67.0 59.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 8 13 16 15 12 14 21 30 33 HEAT CONTENT 115 119 117 75 8 68 23 38 36 15 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. -14. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 14. 22. 29. 35. 35. 32. 25. 16. 4. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/28/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)