* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 25 27 28 29 30 31 30 30 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 25 27 28 29 30 31 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 13 12 13 10 13 9 9 11 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -1 -3 -3 -3 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 103 111 112 115 128 141 140 147 172 159 149 171 178 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.6 24.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 143 141 137 135 132 129 125 119 111 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 5 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 64 61 60 57 51 48 48 47 43 40 31 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 28 44 49 53 71 79 76 54 34 13 6 1 200 MB DIV -1 -16 -7 -5 -34 -8 -9 -2 -11 -8 -17 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 221 244 266 322 378 506 609 674 764 874 980 1051 1156 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.3 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.4 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.8 111.0 112.5 114.4 116.3 118.2 119.8 121.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 9 7 6 3 2 3 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED