* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162010 09/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 52 57 58 52 44 31 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 28 35 39 43 49 43 37 29 24 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 28 32 33 35 37 35 32 28 25 25 DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 14 21 19 31 44 54 70 77 92 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 1 2 -1 5 1 11 12 20 17 N/A SHEAR DIR 248 220 232 235 227 211 180 186 199 223 219 238 N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 28.5 27.8 23.4 20.0 13.6 14.3 11.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 161 157 159 148 138 98 83 71 72 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 152 149 145 149 141 127 88 76 68 69 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -50.8 -50.3 -49.9 -50.3 -50.8 -50.8 -51.5 -50.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 78 72 71 65 49 40 33 33 42 48 54 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 17 18 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 157 162 173 196 164 131 80 71 76 46 34 N/A 200 MB DIV 134 149 146 138 126 63 13 17 69 43 31 28 N/A LAND (KM) 129 12 -24 104 18 125 49 13 33 70 -13 -100 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.0 22.8 24.0 25.1 28.9 33.7 37.5 40.7 43.8 46.3 48.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.6 81.9 81.1 80.8 80.5 79.4 77.6 75.5 71.9 67.9 62.6 56.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 15 22 23 21 22 22 23 23 N/A HEAT CONTENT 116 35 103 81 21 43 2 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 19. 20. 19. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -4. -10. -16. -22. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 27. 28. 22. 14. 1. -11. -17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 138.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/28/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/28/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)