* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162010 09/29/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 48 50 47 38 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 33 36 39 45 39 32 30 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 31 32 34 37 33 29 30 30 27 28 DIS SHEAR (KT) 15 22 14 11 22 26 50 68 77 75 77 84 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 2 3 6 6 0 0 17 19 16 N/A SHEAR DIR 244 230 211 175 209 203 188 195 206 223 225 236 N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.4 25.3 21.2 16.1 13.0 13.0 9.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 160 159 155 147 112 87 74 70 71 68 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 150 149 147 141 103 79 70 68 68 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -50.4 -50.1 -49.6 -50.3 -49.6 -51.3 -51.6 -50.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 73 69 62 57 50 39 29 35 46 53 56 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 153 163 174 194 206 184 144 85 72 80 73 34 N/A 200 MB DIV 136 128 105 118 99 48 29 40 50 49 41 34 N/A LAND (KM) 83 -15 44 47 25 263 -80 -42 -25 -100 110 100 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.4 23.4 24.9 26.3 30.7 35.9 39.9 43.1 46.0 48.3 50.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.1 81.5 80.9 80.4 79.9 78.6 76.9 74.7 71.0 66.6 60.8 54.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 15 19 25 24 21 22 22 23 24 N/A HEAT CONTENT 115 21 64 50 29 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -3. -12. -20. -26. -32. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 20. 17. 8. -5. -16. -27. -35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/29/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/29/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/29/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)