* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/29/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 25 27 28 26 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 25 27 28 26 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 22 20 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 6 7 2 4 5 10 17 20 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 1 1 2 3 1 -2 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 69 84 100 81 91 109 225 255 277 289 281 286 280 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.3 26.6 26.1 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.1 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 143 141 135 128 124 113 105 98 90 85 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 8 9 6 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 59 56 52 51 47 44 40 37 36 28 28 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 47 52 62 77 78 66 44 18 0 -9 0 2 200 MB DIV -8 -4 -22 -16 -11 -22 -9 -20 -14 -17 -8 -7 -14 LAND (KM) 222 261 300 347 393 500 485 503 566 586 604 603 601 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.4 18.7 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.4 107.8 108.3 108.8 110.0 111.3 112.8 114.5 115.9 117.0 117.5 117.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 20. 21. 21. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 2. 3. 1. -3. -8. -14. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/29/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/29/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY