* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162010 09/29/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 48 49 43 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 41 39 31 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 32 33 35 33 30 30 30 25 27 22 DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 16 22 23 17 51 77 92 87 92 100 102 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 3 -2 2 3 3 -5 15 9 9 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 196 218 206 217 203 187 192 203 207 221 241 251 N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.4 26.8 20.5 14.9 11.7 11.1 8.7 11.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 160 151 147 128 86 72 69 69 68 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 154 154 144 142 122 80 69 67 67 67 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -49.4 -49.6 -48.4 -48.3 -48.7 -50.2 -50.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 69 63 51 47 39 37 45 50 51 54 51 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 164 182 186 168 164 166 116 136 164 144 82 -4 N/A 200 MB DIV 120 121 107 85 74 35 66 60 35 40 16 12 N/A LAND (KM) 11 55 54 76 191 -48 -193 -348 -98 -12 -17 489 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 23.5 25.1 27.2 29.2 34.9 41.1 45.4 48.3 50.4 51.3 51.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.9 80.4 79.9 79.4 78.8 77.7 76.2 73.8 69.2 63.6 56.2 47.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 17 19 21 25 30 28 22 21 22 25 27 N/A HEAT CONTENT 102 84 67 54 37 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -6. -16. -26. -34. -42. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 19. 13. -1. -15. -28. -42. -54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/29/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/29/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162010 SIXTEEN 09/29/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)