* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 09/30/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 48 54 56 56 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 48 54 56 56 57 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 42 45 48 51 55 61 SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 15 13 13 21 24 24 20 18 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 261 268 263 271 283 253 297 313 298 286 283 307 311 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 152 152 148 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 159 157 154 145 139 136 134 134 134 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 61 67 70 71 73 76 71 71 65 60 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 41 39 34 25 16 16 25 31 37 32 25 200 MB DIV 56 61 91 94 75 39 60 47 31 13 6 24 15 LAND (KM) 1342 1262 1181 1149 1135 1121 998 961 854 709 562 432 360 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.4 15.0 16.3 17.2 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.2 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.2 44.9 46.5 48.1 49.7 52.3 54.5 56.2 57.6 59.0 60.5 62.1 63.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 17 15 13 11 8 7 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 48 52 47 66 77 69 69 70 68 69 67 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 29. 31. 31. 32. 34. 35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 09/30/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 09/30/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 09/30/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)