* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/01/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 49 62 72 76 78 82 87 92 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 49 62 72 76 78 82 87 92 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 43 55 70 85 94 99 99 96 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 1 3 3 10 10 9 15 20 21 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -1 -2 -2 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 190 254 309 284 315 358 7 347 321 313 316 311 296 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 172 169 167 167 164 163 163 162 160 162 161 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 172 169 168 164 158 155 151 148 150 149 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 74 74 72 73 74 72 72 73 72 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 50 44 50 50 41 48 54 55 53 62 61 58 200 MB DIV 93 38 3 34 19 7 50 16 16 20 40 30 35 LAND (KM) 762 753 659 585 536 522 560 417 316 230 162 111 55 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.4 15.3 16.0 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.3 55.5 56.6 57.7 59.6 61.0 62.3 63.3 64.3 65.2 66.1 66.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 5 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 96 92 90 93 93 113 113 97 92 100 101 95 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 24. 37. 47. 51. 53. 57. 62. 67. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/01/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/01/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/01/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)