* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/01/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 40 45 49 48 47 49 50 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 40 45 49 48 47 49 50 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 40 41 42 42 43 45 SHEAR (KT) 6 11 15 17 22 23 23 30 33 28 26 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 -5 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 295 292 298 293 307 329 315 298 284 277 266 257 275 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 147 145 146 148 150 152 153 151 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 148 145 142 138 136 137 139 142 145 143 140 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 68 70 65 67 65 66 67 67 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 23 15 16 17 11 23 30 45 46 45 26 20 200 MB DIV 76 31 5 10 19 50 35 29 19 30 21 39 31 LAND (KM) 1176 1169 1176 1139 1075 983 910 859 763 569 371 266 366 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 18.3 19.2 20.5 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.9 51.1 52.1 53.1 54.7 56.0 57.2 58.5 60.3 62.3 64.6 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 11 10 9 7 6 6 7 10 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 64 79 78 74 68 73 80 79 77 77 70 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 29. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 20. 24. 23. 22. 24. 25. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/01/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/01/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/01/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)