* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/01/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 42 48 49 48 47 49 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 37 42 48 49 48 47 49 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 39 40 40 41 43 46 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 15 19 23 25 28 28 30 25 26 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -3 -5 -1 -2 -3 1 -3 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 284 281 278 292 303 310 307 287 286 270 287 279 287 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 144 144 143 145 147 148 149 147 149 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 139 136 134 135 137 137 139 138 138 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 66 64 65 67 68 63 63 59 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 16 15 13 21 30 33 38 43 36 38 58 200 MB DIV 36 24 4 9 29 36 41 31 35 20 24 28 29 LAND (KM) 1206 1214 1163 1107 1059 977 917 760 570 402 349 455 465 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.3 21.4 22.6 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 50.9 52.1 53.0 53.9 55.5 57.0 58.5 60.4 62.5 64.7 66.5 68.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 9 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 62 76 70 69 62 67 74 66 69 63 53 51 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 24. 23. 22. 24. 26. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/01/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/01/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/01/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)