* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/01/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 39 40 40 42 45 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 39 40 40 42 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 31 33 35 SHEAR (KT) 8 18 20 24 25 26 26 30 26 26 24 31 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -5 -1 0 0 0 1 -2 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 273 283 304 307 312 317 299 289 293 283 293 303 301 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 144 143 143 146 148 150 151 149 149 148 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 137 135 135 137 139 142 144 141 138 134 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 64 63 65 61 63 59 61 57 61 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 17 16 14 13 30 26 43 39 55 53 72 67 200 MB DIV 23 7 8 25 34 42 56 36 35 15 16 24 20 LAND (KM) 1231 1189 1119 1067 1023 950 801 583 352 201 266 255 338 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.1 21.0 21.9 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 50.7 51.8 52.9 53.8 54.7 56.4 58.1 60.2 62.6 65.1 67.4 69.2 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 11 12 12 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 72 69 67 61 62 73 72 72 74 69 63 62 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 17. 20. 20. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/01/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/01/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/01/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)