* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/02/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 36 39 40 42 46 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 36 39 40 42 46 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 33 38 43 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 22 26 25 26 31 27 20 22 17 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -5 -2 1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 291 302 300 312 317 307 284 294 272 282 265 262 232 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 145 148 150 150 151 149 148 149 148 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 136 136 140 141 142 143 141 138 135 130 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 67 65 62 63 65 63 59 59 58 56 55 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 22 16 22 42 47 46 68 76 91 90 93 200 MB DIV 5 28 41 33 31 49 51 34 30 31 57 49 25 LAND (KM) 1151 1086 1029 980 939 812 613 387 214 233 202 209 215 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.3 54.3 55.2 56.1 58.0 59.9 62.2 64.7 67.0 68.8 70.0 70.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 10 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 68 68 63 66 73 75 71 75 63 66 63 61 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 21. 26. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/02/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/02/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/02/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)