* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/02/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 40 41 43 46 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 40 41 43 46 49 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 31 34 37 40 SHEAR (KT) 17 20 23 23 27 24 26 20 23 19 25 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -2 2 0 -1 -1 2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 302 307 320 327 313 304 293 292 290 297 294 295 274 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 148 150 150 150 150 150 149 148 149 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 140 141 141 141 141 141 139 137 133 132 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 68 67 68 62 61 59 57 60 62 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 14 19 28 34 38 38 54 53 75 76 79 200 MB DIV 32 41 46 47 51 44 40 56 3 30 34 23 21 LAND (KM) 1029 981 943 906 834 644 453 253 188 211 200 223 244 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.9 21.5 21.8 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.0 55.9 56.9 57.8 59.6 61.5 63.8 66.0 68.1 69.8 70.8 71.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 70 67 72 77 76 69 75 62 72 64 63 53 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 21. 24. 24. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/02/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/02/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/02/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)