* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/02/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 41 46 48 53 58 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 41 46 48 53 58 62 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 34 37 43 51 58 SHEAR (KT) 21 21 26 24 27 23 21 19 20 11 13 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 2 0 0 3 -1 -4 -4 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 301 319 322 318 319 320 302 308 328 288 293 257 268 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 152 152 153 154 152 152 152 152 152 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 145 145 146 147 146 145 142 138 134 131 130 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 64 65 63 60 61 60 65 67 68 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 17 30 41 44 42 53 58 76 88 93 86 200 MB DIV 30 39 45 34 55 27 42 24 31 35 32 32 25 LAND (KM) 962 912 874 793 675 464 210 88 91 84 122 144 167 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.9 20.5 20.9 21.1 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.1 56.1 57.1 58.2 59.3 61.3 63.8 66.3 68.6 70.3 71.4 71.8 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 11 12 12 10 7 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 68 74 78 77 77 76 66 72 67 67 67 61 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 23. 28. 33. 37. 38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/02/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/02/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/02/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)