* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/03/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 46 52 57 60 63 64 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 46 52 57 60 63 64 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 41 48 55 61 64 SHEAR (KT) 22 22 20 19 22 16 20 11 18 12 17 16 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 6 1 2 -7 -5 -4 -5 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 321 316 313 297 295 314 304 311 296 296 275 248 249 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 153 152 150 149 150 151 150 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 143 143 144 143 141 138 136 135 132 130 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 68 65 64 63 61 58 58 64 65 65 62 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 34 40 38 50 72 76 92 100 96 73 53 200 MB DIV 41 47 51 51 34 50 19 45 39 37 22 6 24 LAND (KM) 805 718 633 538 443 234 113 176 117 137 155 188 230 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 58.1 58.9 59.7 60.6 61.5 63.6 65.8 67.7 69.3 70.5 71.2 71.7 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 7 5 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 78 76 75 75 77 71 72 64 61 66 54 25 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 38. 39. 35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/03/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/03/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/03/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)