* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/04/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 40 50 59 68 73 75 76 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 31 33 31 35 43 48 50 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 25 31 30 32 38 46 54 62 70 SHEAR (KT) 15 20 14 18 19 15 13 10 13 6 8 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 2 -3 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 310 311 304 310 312 323 317 314 303 284 299 296 272 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 156 153 152 149 151 149 149 138 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 145 146 145 139 135 130 136 138 143 136 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 65 66 67 69 62 66 62 65 61 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 13 15 15 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 44 51 61 73 73 78 99 112 119 83 54 9 0 200 MB DIV 41 32 35 42 51 62 74 56 67 42 33 14 33 LAND (KM) 186 111 38 10 0 -13 -24 2 15 169 337 687 1208 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.2 20.1 21.5 23.7 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.1 64.9 65.6 66.4 67.2 68.5 69.3 69.5 69.1 67.8 65.5 62.4 57.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 8 7 5 3 1 5 10 15 22 26 HEAT CONTENT 80 77 82 83 83 67 99 0 22 65 49 38 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 15. 25. 34. 43. 48. 50. 51. 51. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/04/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 81.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/04/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/04/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)