* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/04/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 40 50 59 66 71 74 76 78 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 40 37 34 38 43 46 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 33 34 38 46 54 62 69 SHEAR (KT) 17 14 18 17 21 13 13 10 10 7 10 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -6 -1 0 -3 -1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 308 311 314 313 323 331 320 303 319 270 306 253 291 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 27.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 155 155 153 151 154 153 148 147 133 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 147 147 144 143 138 133 139 144 142 142 130 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 65 66 70 66 66 66 64 64 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 10 12 13 15 15 14 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 52 64 76 78 81 98 114 118 100 72 24 6 0 200 MB DIV 31 40 43 52 49 87 56 68 31 54 5 25 14 LAND (KM) 62 27 16 54 30 11 -4 0 49 211 501 928 1454 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.4 18.4 19.0 20.4 22.3 24.6 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.4 66.2 67.0 67.7 68.4 69.3 69.7 69.4 68.2 66.0 63.4 59.8 54.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 3 0 4 9 14 18 22 26 HEAT CONTENT 80 85 84 85 84 85 86 87 42 71 49 28 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 15. 25. 34. 41. 46. 49. 51. 53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/04/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 83.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/04/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/04/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)