* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/04/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 42 53 65 73 77 78 79 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 29 27 27 27 27 33 37 38 39 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 23 27 25 26 26 26 32 40 49 56 61 SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 14 10 11 4 7 2 9 11 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -5 -4 -5 0 -2 1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 311 324 315 322 329 334 6 316 17 243 224 242 199 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.6 27.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 156 154 153 150 151 151 150 148 149 132 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 144 142 141 135 134 132 137 138 146 133 140 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 7 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 67 69 67 66 68 63 57 50 58 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 11 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 60 74 77 79 80 111 128 153 102 77 32 26 36 200 MB DIV 34 37 53 71 79 79 91 70 35 34 18 44 50 LAND (KM) 34 6 10 35 -18 -10 -43 -48 21 227 522 964 1638 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.9 21.2 23.2 25.9 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.6 67.3 68.0 68.7 69.6 70.2 70.3 70.0 68.4 66.2 61.1 54.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 4 2 2 7 12 20 30 33 HEAT CONTENT 83 83 79 80 57 0 100 87 53 62 54 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 17. 28. 40. 48. 52. 53. 54. 54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/04/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/04/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/04/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)