* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/05/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 45 56 65 73 76 76 77 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 24 29 33 43 54 63 71 74 74 75 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 29 31 35 42 50 60 69 74 75 74 SHEAR (KT) 18 17 11 12 13 8 4 7 7 13 13 10 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -6 -3 -4 -5 0 -1 -3 1 0 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 307 319 315 296 296 337 278 284 221 247 236 264 204 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 26.8 27.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 152 150 149 146 148 147 147 127 133 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 143 140 137 133 128 132 137 141 124 131 112 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 70 70 68 65 68 68 65 59 57 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 15 14 15 16 15 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 69 69 70 75 90 107 142 138 112 77 85 60 51 200 MB DIV 15 46 63 89 96 75 71 54 54 38 64 81 66 LAND (KM) 95 0 -11 29 78 45 77 99 292 577 960 1529 1580 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.8 23.7 26.4 29.4 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.1 65.9 66.7 67.3 67.9 68.9 69.2 69.3 68.2 66.2 62.2 56.8 50.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 8 7 6 4 2 5 11 18 25 29 31 HEAT CONTENT 80 83 30 66 69 68 65 61 57 56 12 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 31. 40. 48. 51. 51. 52. 49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/05/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/05/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/05/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)