* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/05/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 48 59 69 76 79 78 74 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 47 58 69 75 78 77 74 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 30 31 34 39 47 57 68 74 75 74 69 SHEAR (KT) 15 11 9 11 9 6 7 2 12 14 16 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 0 2 2 5 SHEAR DIR 312 318 304 291 313 35 305 185 244 240 232 217 207 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 26.8 27.0 26.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 151 149 146 145 145 145 144 125 129 121 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 140 136 132 128 129 132 133 116 122 116 106 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 68 65 65 67 66 64 61 62 53 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 63 65 71 79 84 108 120 107 87 73 69 56 57 200 MB DIV 41 75 90 76 71 83 53 55 51 40 68 57 49 LAND (KM) 68 -1 55 105 152 166 227 391 633 922 1326 1609 1403 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.6 21.2 22.5 24.2 26.5 29.0 31.7 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 66.0 66.7 67.3 67.8 68.4 68.4 67.6 65.8 63.6 59.8 54.5 47.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 5 3 5 10 14 18 24 29 31 HEAT CONTENT 78 8 73 66 65 64 62 47 54 10 15 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 23. 34. 44. 51. 54. 53. 49. 42. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/05/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/05/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/05/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)