* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/05/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 56 67 76 82 82 78 73 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 56 67 76 82 82 78 73 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 49 59 71 79 79 75 69 62 SHEAR (KT) 13 8 8 10 9 4 1 7 12 23 34 34 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 -3 -2 -5 2 2 5 5 SHEAR DIR 324 327 294 313 324 360 164 225 234 214 230 216 212 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.3 26.3 26.9 26.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 146 145 145 144 144 144 129 119 126 121 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 133 131 129 127 128 130 117 108 116 114 109 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 61 60 63 64 61 59 55 49 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 15 16 15 16 16 17 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 58 66 73 78 90 138 125 120 97 84 51 69 56 200 MB DIV 59 69 69 54 55 67 55 75 36 44 54 65 32 LAND (KM) 87 122 188 238 260 308 413 616 841 1132 1447 1613 1516 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.8 22.8 24.2 26.0 28.2 30.1 31.6 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.3 66.0 66.6 67.1 67.6 67.9 67.7 66.4 64.9 62.6 59.5 54.7 48.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 6 5 4 7 10 13 16 19 26 29 HEAT CONTENT 72 73 69 65 62 55 49 59 19 3 12 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 11. 9. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 26. 37. 46. 52. 52. 48. 43. 34. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/05/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/05/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/05/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)