* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/05/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 63 71 72 72 67 58 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 63 71 72 72 67 58 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 47 55 63 65 64 60 54 46 SHEAR (KT) 10 14 11 10 2 9 7 18 25 31 44 43 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 -4 -2 -4 -1 -1 3 8 11 7 11 SHEAR DIR 271 293 297 315 338 280 222 230 220 221 217 220 208 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.4 26.2 26.4 26.1 25.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 144 144 144 140 129 117 121 120 112 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 131 128 127 126 124 115 105 110 114 108 99 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 60 56 57 56 61 58 54 48 45 42 38 39 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 16 19 18 19 19 19 21 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 62 73 83 94 117 136 134 129 111 96 112 61 32 200 MB DIV 71 63 44 54 61 51 58 58 68 86 73 28 56 LAND (KM) 235 294 355 385 418 510 669 876 1140 1418 1426 1362 1252 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.9 25.3 26.9 28.8 30.7 32.5 34.7 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 66.3 66.9 67.3 67.6 67.9 67.5 66.4 64.7 61.8 57.1 49.8 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 8 11 14 19 27 33 34 HEAT CONTENT 65 60 54 47 45 57 47 12 2 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 5. 1. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 33. 41. 42. 42. 37. 28. 19. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/05/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/05/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/05/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)