* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 10/06/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 52 60 65 65 61 54 45 35 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 52 60 65 65 61 54 45 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 43 51 56 56 52 46 40 35 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 10 3 5 8 18 30 37 45 52 51 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 0 -3 -1 -2 0 4 3 5 4 7 SHEAR DIR 295 280 303 290 249 215 211 229 218 230 227 222 224 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 27.7 26.5 26.2 26.6 25.7 24.9 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 144 143 143 133 120 117 123 116 111 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 129 126 126 125 117 107 105 111 109 106 98 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 4 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 58 59 55 52 54 52 50 50 41 36 36 40 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 16 15 18 17 18 18 18 19 19 16 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 99 111 125 141 145 147 130 101 60 62 57 40 200 MB DIV 64 35 41 59 75 46 62 29 62 37 34 31 54 LAND (KM) 333 400 426 466 509 630 823 1063 1331 1431 1463 1331 1361 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.3 23.8 25.0 26.5 28.3 30.1 31.5 33.0 35.3 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 66.1 66.7 67.3 67.5 67.7 67.7 66.7 65.3 62.7 59.6 54.8 48.2 40.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 7 10 13 15 19 26 32 34 HEAT CONTENT 58 52 45 49 56 55 18 3 2 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 5. -1. -6. -10. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 30. 35. 35. 31. 24. 15. 5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 10/06/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 10/06/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 10/06/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)