* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172010 10/06/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 50 57 61 60 56 51 44 33 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 50 57 61 60 56 51 44 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 44 50 54 53 49 44 39 34 SHEAR (KT) 13 8 2 4 7 12 19 27 35 41 39 44 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -4 -3 -1 0 4 3 6 2 9 2 SHEAR DIR 277 306 332 200 235 211 224 215 228 216 217 213 223 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.6 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.1 25.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 143 143 141 132 118 121 125 120 113 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 126 124 125 124 117 105 109 115 113 106 99 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 56 54 53 51 49 44 40 41 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 18 18 18 18 19 18 17 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 94 105 121 142 151 141 137 119 80 45 35 31 -40 200 MB DIV 44 46 61 76 54 61 60 49 82 56 27 44 32 LAND (KM) 377 412 442 469 500 638 830 1077 1297 1577 1667 1511 1531 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.8 25.0 26.4 28.1 29.5 30.7 31.7 34.0 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 66.7 67.1 67.5 67.7 67.9 67.5 66.3 64.5 61.7 57.8 52.5 46.7 40.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 5 7 10 13 16 21 25 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 53 46 46 51 56 54 18 3 5 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. -1. -5. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 27. 31. 30. 26. 21. 14. 3. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 SEVENTEEN 10/06/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 SEVENTEEN 10/06/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 SEVENTEEN 10/06/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)