* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172010 10/06/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 58 64 68 68 63 57 49 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 58 64 68 68 63 57 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 45 51 54 56 56 54 51 45 SHEAR (KT) 7 0 3 7 9 14 16 15 17 30 27 36 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 2 -3 -4 -4 0 0 3 3 9 5 9 8 SHEAR DIR 301 209 201 231 226 232 236 226 218 203 202 207 224 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 27.7 26.5 27.1 26.4 25.7 24.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 142 143 143 133 121 130 123 117 110 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 125 124 122 124 126 121 112 122 117 111 102 92 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -52.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 5 5 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 59 56 57 56 56 55 58 52 52 52 55 45 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 18 20 19 19 20 19 21 22 19 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 114 127 152 155 151 154 91 83 67 45 53 -8 -33 200 MB DIV 53 57 72 48 42 67 40 92 69 61 24 49 52 LAND (KM) 403 420 443 476 508 621 791 1027 1392 1705 1595 1624 1787 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.7 25.6 27.2 29.1 31.1 33.1 35.4 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.0 68.3 68.3 68.2 67.2 65.4 62.6 58.7 53.5 47.1 40.8 35.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 3 4 7 12 17 22 27 29 27 26 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 51 55 59 56 28 4 12 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 28. 34. 38. 38. 34. 27. 19. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 SEVENTEEN 10/06/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 SEVENTEEN 10/06/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 SEVENTEEN 10/06/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)