* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/06/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 61 66 71 74 76 74 66 56 46 36 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 61 66 71 74 76 74 66 56 46 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 58 64 69 76 78 73 69 62 54 47 42 SHEAR (KT) 2 3 4 7 9 11 15 22 29 41 46 56 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -4 0 -1 5 7 11 6 6 3 3 SHEAR DIR 16 208 215 185 185 244 239 233 231 229 220 223 229 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.1 26.7 26.9 26.9 25.8 25.2 24.5 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 142 144 138 123 126 128 118 113 107 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 123 123 126 124 112 118 120 111 106 99 88 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 58 58 54 55 46 36 31 33 33 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 18 20 20 19 19 21 22 19 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 134 147 149 144 138 111 84 59 24 1 10 13 22 200 MB DIV 56 66 68 71 56 50 63 51 50 27 27 20 17 LAND (KM) 402 439 477 517 557 713 933 1224 1632 1635 1545 1672 1927 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.1 24.4 25.3 26.7 28.3 30.1 32.1 34.5 36.8 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 68.4 68.5 68.3 68.0 66.5 64.0 60.5 56.1 50.7 44.3 37.9 31.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 6 11 15 20 23 27 29 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 48 51 55 58 60 38 7 10 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 29. 21. 11. 1. -9. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/06/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/06/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/06/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)