* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/07/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 70 72 75 76 79 76 65 55 46 34 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 70 72 75 76 79 76 65 55 46 34 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 70 74 78 81 78 74 70 63 55 49 43 SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 11 15 13 12 16 29 32 36 42 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 7 9 7 6 8 5 0 SHEAR DIR 216 244 240 219 228 245 230 231 231 225 216 212 234 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.4 26.7 27.2 26.4 25.6 24.9 23.6 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 142 142 130 124 130 122 116 110 101 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 125 125 126 119 115 122 115 109 104 94 84 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 57 59 57 59 54 58 56 51 44 41 39 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 19 20 19 19 20 23 25 21 19 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 142 144 138 136 132 82 73 44 0 6 3 25 7 200 MB DIV 67 51 51 67 57 38 85 95 48 17 56 27 20 LAND (KM) 436 473 510 577 645 831 1076 1454 1722 1568 1624 1870 1550 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.9 27.3 29.1 31.1 33.3 35.4 37.6 40.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 68.1 67.9 67.4 66.9 64.8 61.6 57.6 53.0 47.3 40.8 34.0 27.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 6 8 14 18 21 24 28 29 29 29 HEAT CONTENT 50 53 57 59 52 20 6 11 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 17. 20. 21. 24. 21. 10. 0. -9. -21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/07/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/07/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/07/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)