* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/07/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 60 61 63 66 68 63 55 47 39 28 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 60 61 63 66 68 63 55 47 39 28 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 58 60 63 66 66 64 58 53 47 42 37 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 11 12 16 18 25 22 36 33 43 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -4 -5 1 5 12 10 7 8 2 0 SHEAR DIR 251 256 237 227 251 232 224 227 219 201 211 217 233 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 26.7 27.1 26.6 25.6 24.8 23.4 21.2 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 142 139 123 129 125 116 110 100 87 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 127 126 125 114 121 118 110 104 93 80 75 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -50.7 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 60 60 58 54 48 50 41 38 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 20 20 21 24 25 24 20 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 142 137 133 126 99 74 58 7 4 10 7 20 24 200 MB DIV 52 48 63 57 50 65 101 88 23 42 39 30 23 LAND (KM) 457 504 552 641 733 955 1317 1698 1567 1553 1779 1666 1275 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.6 25.1 26.7 28.7 30.8 33.0 35.5 38.2 40.7 43.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 67.8 67.4 66.6 65.8 63.2 59.4 54.7 48.7 42.0 34.7 29.0 24.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 9 11 17 21 25 29 31 29 22 19 HEAT CONTENT 52 56 60 52 38 7 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 8. 0. -8. -16. -27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/07/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/07/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/07/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)