* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/07/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 50 51 52 53 56 53 48 39 31 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 51 52 53 56 53 48 39 31 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 49 50 52 54 54 52 47 42 37 32 28 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 13 11 15 20 21 30 37 45 49 52 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 -3 -2 4 9 10 5 8 1 5 1 SHEAR DIR 298 254 256 256 255 239 250 228 211 207 214 238 251 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.5 26.6 27.1 25.9 25.2 24.3 22.3 21.3 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 139 132 123 130 119 113 106 93 86 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 129 127 121 115 123 114 108 98 85 78 76 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 57 57 52 45 41 39 30 26 32 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 21 24 21 18 13 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 146 135 131 103 72 59 23 16 24 3 19 14 30 200 MB DIV 38 51 49 58 42 95 75 30 24 52 23 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 463 521 581 714 819 1098 1508 1636 1490 1609 1888 1514 1190 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.0 24.3 25.1 25.8 27.6 29.7 32.0 34.7 37.2 39.4 40.6 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 67.8 67.2 66.1 64.9 61.8 57.6 52.0 45.2 38.4 32.1 27.1 23.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 9 13 15 19 24 29 31 28 24 17 14 HEAT CONTENT 53 59 59 41 22 4 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 3. -2. -11. -19. -27. -36. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/07/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/07/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/07/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)