* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/07/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 51 52 53 55 54 48 36 27 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 51 52 53 55 54 48 36 27 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 50 51 52 53 53 50 45 40 34 29 26 SHEAR (KT) 10 15 12 12 15 20 20 22 37 46 45 48 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 0 2 5 10 9 9 7 7 5 3 SHEAR DIR 267 274 269 255 231 246 225 224 203 214 226 246 249 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.5 26.8 27.1 26.5 25.5 24.7 23.6 21.9 21.8 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 142 132 125 130 124 115 109 100 89 86 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 129 129 121 115 123 118 110 102 92 80 76 78 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.5 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 63 64 61 58 56 49 40 38 31 21 22 24 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 20 20 22 24 22 21 14 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 132 133 95 60 50 44 5 15 8 -5 -24 -6 31 200 MB DIV 59 47 52 51 73 84 84 33 26 12 17 -13 -23 LAND (KM) 500 589 682 802 922 1292 1693 1539 1521 1732 1771 1456 1295 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.7 26.5 28.6 30.9 33.3 35.9 38.0 39.5 39.5 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 67.9 67.1 66.2 64.9 63.6 59.7 54.5 48.5 41.9 35.6 29.8 26.1 24.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 12 14 17 23 27 29 29 26 19 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 57 58 45 24 8 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -7. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. -2. -14. -23. -31. -41. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/07/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/07/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/07/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)