* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/08/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 56 59 62 60 54 50 44 36 29 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 54 56 59 62 60 54 50 44 36 29 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 54 55 58 59 57 53 49 45 42 41 SHEAR (KT) 16 11 9 6 9 14 15 21 32 27 23 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 0 6 7 8 5 3 4 5 8 SHEAR DIR 268 283 266 240 221 243 221 205 210 227 256 255 258 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.8 27.3 26.2 25.5 24.7 23.2 22.2 22.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 138 129 126 133 121 115 109 98 90 91 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 127 121 119 128 115 109 102 90 81 79 85 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 60 60 58 50 47 48 39 38 39 35 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 21 21 19 22 24 22 19 19 17 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 140 101 75 62 64 18 4 25 15 17 33 47 40 200 MB DIV 41 36 55 63 79 77 68 38 50 25 0 -15 -31 LAND (KM) 539 636 695 840 1003 1491 1705 1568 1656 1977 1464 1258 1296 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.7 26.7 29.1 31.4 33.8 36.4 38.0 38.6 37.5 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 67.1 66.1 65.1 63.5 61.9 57.0 51.6 45.6 38.7 32.1 26.1 23.5 23.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 14 18 21 26 27 29 29 25 17 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 58 51 37 15 8 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 10. 4. 0. -6. -14. -21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/08/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/08/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/08/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)