* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/08/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 72 75 78 75 69 61 54 42 33 27 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 72 75 78 75 69 61 54 42 33 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 68 71 73 75 72 66 58 50 44 40 38 SHEAR (KT) 14 9 6 7 10 17 24 29 35 36 36 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 3 1 5 8 6 3 0 3 3 7 SHEAR DIR 281 288 309 239 240 236 197 194 226 235 258 262 268 SST (C) 28.4 27.8 27.2 26.8 27.2 26.9 25.7 24.9 23.7 22.1 22.2 22.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 135 129 126 131 128 117 111 101 90 88 91 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 123 120 118 124 123 112 105 93 82 78 79 84 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 6 5 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 59 58 57 51 44 42 43 42 41 36 31 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 20 20 22 22 20 19 21 17 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 92 69 57 59 44 15 25 18 -6 9 36 67 75 200 MB DIV 53 62 69 93 85 48 63 32 41 21 -13 -14 -4 LAND (KM) 650 737 837 1022 1221 1722 1598 1581 1808 1720 1376 1221 1246 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.1 25.7 26.8 27.9 30.2 32.7 35.2 37.7 38.9 38.8 37.6 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 66.1 64.9 63.6 61.7 59.8 54.8 48.8 42.0 34.8 29.1 25.1 23.1 22.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 17 20 23 27 30 31 27 19 12 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 50 31 16 8 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 15. 9. 1. -6. -18. -27. -33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/08/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/08/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/08/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 6( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)