* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/08/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 68 71 70 64 58 50 41 31 25 21 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 68 71 70 64 58 50 41 31 25 21 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 65 67 68 67 63 56 49 44 40 39 38 SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 13 19 30 25 35 24 35 37 35 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 7 3 3 6 9 2 -3 -2 2 5 SHEAR DIR 296 265 248 237 234 240 228 223 235 263 257 269 269 SST (C) 27.6 26.8 26.7 27.1 27.1 26.0 25.0 23.9 22.0 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 124 124 130 130 120 112 104 91 86 88 92 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 114 116 123 124 115 108 97 83 76 76 80 83 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 61 54 51 47 43 48 40 44 38 32 32 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 22 21 24 24 20 20 17 16 14 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 61 45 61 45 26 1 14 0 5 35 66 94 107 200 MB DIV 47 65 108 91 59 37 33 64 27 1 -4 -28 -9 LAND (KM) 780 913 1058 1274 1502 1647 1453 1626 1812 1447 1342 1182 975 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.4 29.5 31.9 35.1 37.8 39.5 39.8 38.7 37.4 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 64.6 63.2 61.8 59.6 57.4 52.0 45.1 37.4 30.3 26.0 24.7 22.6 19.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 19 23 24 29 33 31 23 11 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 9 6 14 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 10. 4. -2. -10. -19. -29. -35. -39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/08/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/08/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/08/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)