* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/08/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 76 78 78 73 67 57 44 34 24 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 73 76 78 78 73 67 57 44 34 24 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 76 77 76 70 63 54 46 40 37 35 35 SHEAR (KT) 11 16 14 23 26 27 31 34 35 40 38 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 6 4 2 6 10 7 2 -2 -4 2 4 SHEAR DIR 252 263 259 235 239 242 207 224 238 250 255 264 260 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.1 26.5 25.3 24.5 22.6 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.7 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 129 130 124 114 108 95 87 85 86 90 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 122 125 119 110 102 87 78 74 75 78 81 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 55 50 45 42 46 43 34 29 28 26 26 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 24 26 26 25 23 20 16 16 14 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 53 65 54 28 8 11 18 -1 7 41 67 95 106 200 MB DIV 73 91 72 64 58 32 77 44 11 0 -15 -25 -12 LAND (KM) 916 1092 1279 1537 1680 1477 1471 1756 1594 1309 1224 1148 1107 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.4 28.4 29.7 31.0 33.9 37.0 39.3 40.4 40.4 39.4 37.8 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.1 61.4 59.6 57.1 54.6 48.4 41.0 34.0 28.0 24.5 23.4 22.3 21.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 22 25 28 32 32 27 18 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 13 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -6. -7. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 3. -3. -13. -26. -36. -46. -51. -55. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/08/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/08/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/08/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 6( 14) 4( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)