* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 10/08/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 23 27 33 40 44 46 48 45 41 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 23 27 33 40 32 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 26 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 10 11 15 15 15 14 21 26 34 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 -5 -9 -7 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 126 142 154 167 131 175 179 180 155 155 145 157 154 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 28.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 161 161 162 161 155 154 156 160 150 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 148 150 152 152 154 154 149 148 151 155 144 131 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 8 7 8 7 9 7 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 65 63 64 58 57 51 49 47 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 49 44 42 47 47 45 41 35 11 -1 -9 200 MB DIV -16 -3 -3 -3 21 85 84 71 46 81 64 56 50 LAND (KM) 411 420 429 440 402 302 172 32 -78 -63 -14 -115 -95 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 78.7 78.8 79.2 79.5 80.4 81.6 82.9 84.5 86.2 88.1 90.0 92.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 78 76 75 70 64 58 57 1 0 0 0 28 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 33. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 24. 26. 28. 25. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 10/08/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 10/08/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 10/08/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)