* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/09/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 79 80 80 73 63 51 40 32 27 22 18 V (KT) LAND 75 77 79 80 80 73 63 51 40 32 27 22 18 V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 80 79 76 69 60 48 40 36 36 39 42 SHEAR (KT) 19 20 17 15 24 26 44 35 33 24 17 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 11 6 11 4 7 2 0 -4 -7 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 266 255 231 209 215 208 202 204 222 229 252 285 297 SST (C) 26.7 27.1 27.0 26.4 25.7 24.8 22.7 20.8 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 130 129 123 118 111 96 84 82 83 85 88 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 123 123 118 114 107 89 76 72 73 75 77 79 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 55 51 44 41 41 43 34 30 28 25 26 33 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 25 25 28 30 26 24 22 20 22 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 56 46 18 -3 0 10 25 2 -2 20 69 118 127 200 MB DIV 71 79 72 76 83 23 77 44 20 10 -10 -3 9 LAND (KM) 1062 1291 1528 1669 1592 1394 1497 1782 1626 1437 1268 1061 846 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.5 29.8 31.1 32.4 35.9 39.8 41.6 41.6 41.0 40.4 39.3 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 61.7 59.6 57.4 54.6 51.8 44.6 37.2 31.9 28.8 26.3 24.0 21.5 18.9 STM SPEED (KT) 19 23 25 27 31 35 28 16 11 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 13 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 54/ 16 CX,CY: 13/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -16. -22. -28. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. -2. -12. -24. -35. -43. -48. -53. -57. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/09/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/09/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/09/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 7( 18) 4( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)