* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 10/09/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 43 49 52 54 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 43 49 52 54 53 52 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 42 45 48 51 53 36 SHEAR (KT) 17 14 11 10 15 15 12 11 14 15 26 27 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -1 -2 -5 1 0 -1 -5 -4 -6 -9 -7 SHEAR DIR 139 153 155 143 139 193 180 183 160 160 166 169 166 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 161 161 162 161 157 156 163 163 163 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 150 151 153 153 152 148 147 154 152 152 148 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 9 8 7 9 7 9 6 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 64 65 65 56 53 51 46 51 53 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 49 46 45 46 48 47 26 28 6 8 -2 -11 200 MB DIV 0 -1 -5 18 45 73 76 40 49 53 59 73 74 LAND (KM) 438 446 455 457 431 333 227 154 107 144 133 0 -127 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.5 78.6 78.9 79.2 80.1 81.1 82.2 83.5 85.1 86.5 87.9 89.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 79 77 76 72 67 63 70 9 94 104 122 40 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 28. 27. 24. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 10/09/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 10/09/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 10/09/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)