* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/09/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 76 74 66 56 46 37 29 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 76 74 66 56 46 37 29 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 76 74 71 63 52 42 36 33 34 36 39 SHEAR (KT) 20 25 19 27 27 41 32 33 28 18 14 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 10 11 10 10 5 0 -2 -7 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 249 241 226 202 209 196 210 211 209 226 304 314 295 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.4 25.6 25.2 23.9 20.8 19.9 20.0 20.2 20.4 21.2 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 124 117 114 105 87 79 78 80 80 84 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 119 112 111 100 80 71 69 71 71 74 80 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -50.9 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 5 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 53 48 40 43 43 42 41 31 28 26 26 28 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 25 29 28 28 27 24 24 24 24 21 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 37 7 -11 -3 12 54 36 9 -30 -10 67 101 130 200 MB DIV 73 76 83 114 69 61 72 47 21 11 19 10 25 LAND (KM) 1283 1547 1659 1556 1438 1418 1707 1609 1462 1293 1031 928 909 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.9 31.2 32.8 34.3 38.2 41.6 43.0 43.0 42.9 43.1 41.5 38.7 LONG(DEG W) 59.7 57.2 54.6 51.4 48.2 40.2 32.9 28.9 27.1 25.0 21.8 20.2 19.7 STM SPEED (KT) 22 26 29 31 34 35 25 11 7 10 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 20 CX,CY: 16/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -19. -25. -30. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -1. -9. -19. -29. -38. -45. -53. -58. -61. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/09/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/09/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/09/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 5( 15) 3( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)