* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 10/09/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 34 40 45 47 47 46 45 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 34 40 45 47 47 46 45 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 34 37 40 45 51 56 55 51 SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 17 13 10 9 8 14 22 29 33 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -4 0 0 1 -4 -7 -9 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 165 172 165 160 181 194 194 205 182 187 201 211 222 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 162 162 160 160 159 163 161 153 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 152 153 153 150 149 148 152 147 137 129 131 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 9 7 8 7 8 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 66 61 61 61 56 49 48 47 49 50 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 39 37 34 43 39 31 13 -2 -4 -10 -1 -1 200 MB DIV -3 -5 19 47 70 66 51 18 38 53 60 64 16 LAND (KM) 433 407 385 362 348 313 317 341 319 177 106 108 93 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.3 17.2 18.2 19.0 20.2 21.2 22.1 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 78.9 79.1 79.5 79.8 80.6 81.3 82.2 83.5 84.8 85.6 85.8 85.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 75 69 67 70 78 96 110 113 114 123 94 56 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 20. 22. 22. 21. 20. 18. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 10/09/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 10/09/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 10/09/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)