* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/09/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 65 63 60 53 44 34 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 65 63 60 53 44 34 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 60 57 55 49 42 34 30 28 29 31 33 SHEAR (KT) 19 21 24 27 29 40 37 34 26 15 18 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 9 8 8 8 0 0 -2 -3 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 239 212 214 208 191 203 209 211 211 244 279 272 257 SST (C) 27.0 26.2 25.4 25.0 24.7 22.5 19.8 19.6 20.2 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 122 115 112 110 96 82 76 78 83 86 89 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 117 111 108 105 90 75 68 69 73 75 78 83 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 3 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 49 43 45 44 41 35 31 25 21 19 29 34 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 27 31 26 24 24 23 24 20 19 19 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 15 20 31 39 1 -32 -47 7 86 112 84 200 MB DIV 65 97 109 61 27 77 46 37 16 -5 14 4 0 LAND (KM) 1572 1631 1519 1408 1372 1540 1697 1447 1401 1339 1170 1083 1112 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 31.6 33.1 34.7 36.3 39.9 43.1 43.9 42.7 41.3 40.4 38.6 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 54.2 51.2 47.7 44.2 36.5 30.0 27.0 26.3 25.2 22.8 21.7 21.4 STM SPEED (KT) 27 29 31 33 34 32 20 7 7 9 10 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 25 CX,CY: 20/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. -2. -5. -12. -21. -31. -42. -49. -54. -57. -59. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/09/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/09/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/09/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)