* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 10/09/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 35 43 52 56 57 54 49 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 35 33 29 28 31 27 27 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 33 29 27 32 28 27 29 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 15 13 9 14 14 20 21 30 33 43 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 0 0 -3 -6 -8 -6 -7 -5 -7 -10 SHEAR DIR 158 142 143 163 168 158 140 140 142 153 156 156 161 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.7 28.8 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 164 164 162 157 154 156 158 163 148 136 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 156 157 155 149 148 150 153 156 139 129 124 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 7 6 8 6 8 6 8 5 8 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 62 61 58 54 49 47 48 50 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 4 5 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 41 46 46 39 24 33 14 11 -2 -9 -25 200 MB DIV -6 9 36 72 80 93 69 76 75 54 54 25 32 LAND (KM) 411 365 319 258 196 75 -66 -83 -35 0 -181 -97 62 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.1 15.8 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 79.9 80.3 80.9 81.4 82.5 83.9 85.4 87.3 89.0 90.7 92.3 94.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 65 59 57 60 65 4 0 0 92 0 0 12 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 18. 27. 31. 32. 29. 24. 16. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 10/09/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 10/09/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 10/09/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)